Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby Csl312 » Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:06 pm

I feel that this index is not all that useful either. There are too many other variables not accounted for and I did not walk away convinced that age is as important as stated in this article. The % of a teams yards are pretty useful I think, but there are a couple caveats.
1) This does not take into account the system - a huge component IMO. Given my limited knowledge of college football I won't try to use examples, but I am sure there are some coaching staffs that prefer to focus in on a set of 2 or 3 WRs primarily (and RBs as well) over others while some staffs try to spread it out a lot. Finding a way to incorporate the average % of targets a "replacement" (as in the baseball WAR) player would get would I think shore up this problem a little bit.
2) I think the author used only receiving yards. That would indicate that a WR who gets a few carries, or runs a reverse frequently, is not having those yards counted. That is still meaningful contribution to the offense and if you are weighing against total offensive yards, then yards a player gains on the ground are actually making him look worse with this metric.
3) This forumla uses age, but experience is really what he is trying to measure. Change it to years playing football, or years playing the position. That will at least help you evaluate who is natrually better at grasping the game. This would have to have diminished impact with more years played - obviously playing 8th grade football is not nearly as helpful as the first year in college.

Finally I am less impressed than others here. Out of the top 10, there are 2 guys that are acutal 'phenoms' at this point. The others have flashed talent, or have already fizzled out.

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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby NJKV » Mon Mar 31, 2014 3:08 pm

BwK wrote:
Zounder wrote:A LOT of people in this thread missing the point and do not understand the explanation of the Phenom Index. In short: he states at the start that BY ITSELF, the value explains roughly a quarter of fantasy variation. For a single stat, that's an awful lot. Furthermore, he goes on to say that PI when paired with draft position explains roughly half of fantasy point variation. This explains many of the "busts" on those lists, as players drafted in the 2nd/3rd round are already less likely to succeed regardless of PI due to situation (team isn't relying on them as much) and the fact that NFL talent evaluators didn't like them as much.

So many people in this thread and elsewhere are quick to dismiss things like this as silly because of exceptions as described earlier and because they think the stat claims to be the key to finding every single fantasy stud. No single stat is like that. This article is merely showing that PI (which as explained earlier is really just weighing %stats with age in college) is, along with other things, useful in evaluating players for fantasy purposes.

Also:
#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin

Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype.
Um, what? Isn't having the 3rd highest Index a GOOD thing? Why would that make you think he wouldn't live up to the hype?
Every Wr taken in the 1-2 rnd was a stud or borderline stud in college so apparently the phenom index purpose is giving me the ranking of which stud is better because they dominated at a younger age. We do get the point and it helps in our research none. I can create any stat and look back and pull out the positives...Any freshman wearing nikes has a 46% chance of being a stud. Thats all this is. yes it hit on some but it missed on many. Its as good as flipping a coin. Give me a index that has a 65% rate of success and then we can talk. Any index that tells me dwayne jerrett has a higher ranking of anything over calvin johnson is wasting my time. So when this index projects 2014 rankings I laugh because just like in 2007 and 2011 the best wr in the class is ranked behind busts...so my question is why even include this index in your data of determining if you like a player? I can tell by film study that dez bryant is going to be a stud I dont need this.

Oh and by the way the author omitted desmond briscoe in his rankings. He should be listed at #2 with an index rating over 4...what a joke. He clearly wants to sway his findings and by him hiding this in his roto article I dismiss this completely.(Don't tell me briscoe should be ommitted because he was a 6th rnd pick because Gordon was taken in the supp draft which equals the 4-6 rnd in the traditional draft. However the author "Had" to use Gordon to grab the readers attention otherwise d. jarrett would be #1 on the list.)
I don't know if you read the article completely but he does mention he is only using this on people taking in the top 100 picks of the NFL. He isn't omitted it to sway his argument. Also, if you know anything about statistically analysis anomalies will exist especially when humans are being tested on.

I don't think the author is saying use this tool as an end all be all. He is saying it can be used to sort through some players like a Kelvin Benjamin, who had one good season when he was older, compared to a Cooks, who performed at a high level for 2 seasons, who is 20. The point is a 23 is going to beat up on a 19 year. That is why there are rules that you have to be 3 years removed from high school to enter the NFL draft. The players are that much bigger, faster and stronger.

I by no means am going to use this as a final tool but it is good to keep in mind.

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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby zounder » Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:18 pm

BwK wrote:My point is this: There are so many variables in determining how we set up our draft boards. Why incorporate an index that is wrong more often than not? It just adds confusion.
If you consider PI more wrong than right, then so is every other stat. Guaranteed. Go tell me how much height BY ITSELF correlates to fantasy success. Or Draft position. or TDs caught in college. I guarantee you the %variation explained by these stats are all lead to being "wrong more than right." That's what you don't seem to get.

Using ANY single by itself is silly. That's what you seem to be doing with PI. That's not what it's intention is
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby Defender » Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:31 pm

I view this as a tool to identify rookies who have a higher chance of busting.

Add this to the list of reasons why I won't be drafting Kelvin Benjamin.
The standard is the standard.


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