Success Profiler Study

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HawkeyeState
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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby HawkeyeState » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:59 pm

Man, this class looks terrible when you use those parameters for hit rates and apply them to the class as best as possible
Team 1
10 TM .5 PPR, 6 pt all TDs 1/2/3/1/2Flex
Newton, Rivers
LF, Chubb, Michel, Kerryon, Hyde, AJones, Royce F, Crowell
Adams, Cooper, Alshon, Watkins, ARob, Fuller, Doctson, Funchess, Gallup, Pettis, Valdez-Scant
Gronk, HHenry, Engram
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 2
10 TM 1/2/3/1/1Flex 6pt all TDs .25 PPR RB, .5 PPR WR, 1 PPR TE
Wilson, Big Ben
Bell, JConner, MMack, Shady, CThompson, D'Onta Foreman, C Edmonds, B Scarborough
Julio, Nuk, Fuller, Cooks, ARob, Watkins, Cooper, SShepard, CDavis, DJ Chark
Kelce, Olsen, Andrews
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 3
10 team, 0.5 PPR RBs WRs, 1 PPR TEs, Devy Superflex League
Carr, Goff, Falk
Barkley, Dalvin, Mixon, Michel, Ballage, MDavis, Dixon, Akers*
Hopkins, JuJu, Watkins, Fuller, Agholor, Moncrief, EQSB, Valdez-Scant, CRogers
Eifert, Ebron, JJames, JCook
1.02, 2.02, 2.06, 3.04

Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too

Astonishment
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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby Astonishment » Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:07 am

HawkeyeState wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:59 pm Man, this class looks terrible when you use those parameters for hit rates and apply them to the class as best as possible
The Pre-draft scoring it is actually quite an impressive at the TE position (some of those hit rates will spike with 1st and 2nd round scores added in), and the RB shows very well in the elite tier but not much in the 2nd tier where the expected depth is supposed to be... and yes, the WR portion is underwhelming with no great scores.

That said an important but sobering aspect to remember is that the average hit for a RB is only 26.7, WR is 28.4, and TE is 30.5.

Currently we have 6 TE's sitting at a 50% hit rate, and 3-4 are likely to jump into the 83.3% range post NFL draft. We have 2 RB's in the 80.0 hit range and we have to go back to the insane RB class of 2008 to find a class with even 1 RB that scored that well pre-draft (guys like Elliot and Gurley were just short of the top tier pre-draft). Having only 1 RB in tier 2 (65.7% hit rate) is, however, very disappointing, with the hype of this class I would have expected 4-6 similar to the 2011-13 drafts. Post draft, I would guess that the total in this 2nd tier group will rise, as guys like Fournette, Cook, and Kamara are all consistently considered 1st-2nd round picks.

All the other guys that "disappointed" so far fall in the 27.3-20.5% range (Hunt, Conner, Perine, etc.), which is basically an "average" hit rate range. Dayes was also rumored to be nursing injuries during his runs so his results are somewhat in question, but his score is so low it can't help but be viewed negatively. Those guys don't have great attributes, or even multiple positive attributes, but they also are not huge risks based on average hit rates... it's just that a hit rate in the 20% range looks pretty bad.

Maybe this should be more of an eye opener at the low hit rates of all rookies, because looking at previous years this year is pretty normal. Last year, just like this year, we had only 3 player scored above average at RB in the pre-draft scoring, 4 players the year before that, then 3, then 2 - 3 this year. TE's are similar with the numbers being 2, 4, 3, 5 (that last year was the Eifert, Kelce, Ertz draft which was very good at TE) - 6 this year. WRs have more opportunities to be hits, so their total potential quantities are larger and they show 4, 10, 8, 1 - 7 this year.

With those numbers you are looking at a roughly similar sample size of guys to that of the average 1st round dynasty rookie draft that are better than the 20-30% average hit rate... and not all of those guys are considered 1st round caliber rookie fantasy picks. In short, without the draft indicators included in the scoring, this draft is not measuring out bad, but the hype is also not seeming to hold up... outside of the TE position it seems to be more or less average.
12 Team, 21 players, 4 man TS, 21 keepers, .5 PPR, 6 pt passing TD, .04 return yards, 4 round rookie draft
Start 10: 1 QB / 1-3 RB / 2-5 WR / 1-3 TE / 1 K / 1 Def

QB- Wilson, Dalton, Bradford
RB- Howard, Henry, Kamara, Abdullah, Foreman, Breida
WR- Cooper, Green, Robinson(IR), Diggs, Cobb, Sheppard, Treadwell, Goodwin, Grant
TE - Eifert, Ertz

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:54 pm

Bruiser wrote: Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:28 pm Fantastic work here! Bravo.
What he said.

Astonishment
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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby Astonishment » Thu May 04, 2017 1:18 pm

Here are the scores updated with the draft results:

2017 RB Post-Draft Success Profiler scoring
(RB hit rates 15.0-7.0=84.2%, 6.9-4.0=63.2%, 3.9-2.0=26.3%, 1.9-2.0=17.9%, 2.1-10.0=7.2%)

D'Onta Foreman - 9.0
Christian McCaffrey - 8.8
Joe Mixon - 8.7
Leonard Fournette - 6.0
Dalvin Cook - 3.2
Joe Williams - 2.3
Marlon Mack - 2.3
Kareem Hunt - 1.8
Brian Hill - 1.8
Jeremy McNichols - 1.8
Aaron Jones - 1.3
Jamaal Williams - 0.5
Alvin Kamara - 0.3
Tarik Cohen - 0.0
Devante Mays - 0.2
James Conner - 0.5
Matt Brida - 0.7
Elijah Hood - 1.0
I'Tavius Mathers - 1.0
Elijah McGuire - 1.2
Corey Clement - 1.5
Samaje Perine - 1.5
De'Angelo Henderson - 2.0
Donnel Pumphrey - 2.0
TJ Logan - 2.0
Justin Davis - 2.5
Wayne Gallman - 2.5
12 Team, 21 players, 4 man TS, 21 keepers, .5 PPR, 6 pt passing TD, .04 return yards, 4 round rookie draft
Start 10: 1 QB / 1-3 RB / 2-5 WR / 1-3 TE / 1 K / 1 Def

QB- Wilson, Dalton, Bradford
RB- Howard, Henry, Kamara, Abdullah, Foreman, Breida
WR- Cooper, Green, Robinson(IR), Diggs, Cobb, Sheppard, Treadwell, Goodwin, Grant
TE - Eifert, Ertz

Astonishment
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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby Astonishment » Thu May 04, 2017 1:30 pm

2017 WR Post-Draft Success Profiler scoring
(WR hit rates 15.0-7.0=75.0, 6.9-3.0=67.6%, 2.9-0.0=34.4%, 0.1-2.0=15.8%, 2.1-15.0=10.8%)

John Ross - 5.0
Josh Malone - 4.5
Zay Jones - 4.3
Chris Godwin - 4.2
Chad Williams - 4.0
Kenny Golladay - 4.0
Taywan Taylor - 4.0
Carlos Henderson - 3.5
Curtis Samuel - 2.8
Amara Darboh - 2.0
Juju Smith-Schuster - 1.8
Fred Ross - 1.5
Josh Reynolds - 1.5
Krishawn Hogan - 1.5
Mike Williams - 1.5
DeAngelo Yancey - 1.0
Isaiah McKenzie - 1.0
KD Cannon - 0.7
Robert Davis - 0.7
Dede Westbrook - 0.5
Keevan Lucas - 0.5
Amba Etta-Tawo - 0.0
ArDarius Stewart - 0.5
Shelton Gibson - 0.5
Cooper Kupp - 1.0
Jerome Lane - 1.0
Chad Hensen - 1.5
David Moore - 1.5
Trent Taylor - 1.5
Ishmael Zamora - 1.8
Austin Carr - 2.0
Noah Brown - 2.3
Quincy Adeboyejo - 3.0
Ryan Switzer - 3.0
Malachi Dupre - 3.3
Bug Howard - 3.5
Damore'ea Stringfellow - 3.5
Jehu Chesson - 3.5
Rodney Adams - 3.5
Stacy Coley - 3.5
Ricky Seals-Jones - 4.0
Isaiah Ford - 4.3
Last edited by Astonishment on Thu May 04, 2017 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
12 Team, 21 players, 4 man TS, 21 keepers, .5 PPR, 6 pt passing TD, .04 return yards, 4 round rookie draft
Start 10: 1 QB / 1-3 RB / 2-5 WR / 1-3 TE / 1 K / 1 Def

QB- Wilson, Dalton, Bradford
RB- Howard, Henry, Kamara, Abdullah, Foreman, Breida
WR- Cooper, Green, Robinson(IR), Diggs, Cobb, Sheppard, Treadwell, Goodwin, Grant
TE - Eifert, Ertz

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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby Astonishment » Thu May 04, 2017 1:37 pm

2017 TE Post-Draft Success Profiler scoring
(TE hit rates 15.0-6.0=83.3%, 5.9-3.0=53.7%, 2.9-0.0=30.4%, 0.1-2.0=13.8%, 2.1-15.0=3.7%)

Evan Engram - 8.7
David Njoku - 7.5
Adam Shaheen - 6.8
OJ Howard - 6.7
Gerald Everett - 5.9
Bucky Hodges - 4.8
George Kittle - 3.4
Jonnu Smith - 3.1
Eric Saubert - 2.9
Mike Roberts - 1.8
Jordan Leggett - 0.8
Jeremy Sprinkle - 0.8
Mason Schreck - 0.6
Darrell Daniels - 3.0
Cole Hikutini - 3.2
Pharoah Brown - 4.4
Blake Jarwin - 5.1
12 Team, 21 players, 4 man TS, 21 keepers, .5 PPR, 6 pt passing TD, .04 return yards, 4 round rookie draft
Start 10: 1 QB / 1-3 RB / 2-5 WR / 1-3 TE / 1 K / 1 Def

QB- Wilson, Dalton, Bradford
RB- Howard, Henry, Kamara, Abdullah, Foreman, Breida
WR- Cooper, Green, Robinson(IR), Diggs, Cobb, Sheppard, Treadwell, Goodwin, Grant
TE - Eifert, Ertz

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Diti51
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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby Diti51 » Tue May 30, 2017 7:34 pm

this is fantastic stuff. I did my own game film analysis on most if not all the offensive prospects on these lists and using this score to supplement my scouting score, really helps take it to another level. additional data points and hit rate percentage adds another layer to analysis for rookie draft prep. Thanks for all the work and sharing the information! Just awesome!
Team 1- Friday Night Lights
12 tm dynasty PPR, TE premiumQB/2RB/2WR/TE/3FLEX/K/D
http://www63.myfantasyleague.com/2017/home/14805#0
QB: Mahomes/Mayfield/Levis
RB: Jonathan Taylor/Singletary/Allgier/Ty Chandler/Bigsby/AGibson
WR: Garret Wilson/Nico Collins/Diontae Johnson/Mi Williams/Marquise Brown/Zay Flowers
TE: Goeddert/Njoku/Ferguson/Harrison Bryant

Team 2 - Good Life
12 tm dynasty PPR, TE premiumQB/2RB/2WR/TE/2FLEX/K/D
http://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2017/home/58823#0
QB: Josh Allen/Dobbs
RB: Jon Taylor/Roschon Johnson/JK Dobbins/Ty Chandler
WR: Diggs/Lockett/Diontae Johnson/Pittman/Elijah Moore/Jayden Reed/Wandale Robinson
TE: Ferguson/Okwonkwo/Juwan Johnson/Tucker Kraft/Ruckert

Team 3 - WFL
12 tm dynasty superflex, PPR, 26 man roster salary cap - no K/DST
QB: Fields/TLawrence/Zach Wilson/Mills
RB: Gibson/Chandler
WR: ACooper/Lockett/Godwin/Rashee Rice/Josh Downs/Mingo/Elijah Moore/WRobinson
TE: Goeddert/Trautman/Brevin Jordan

Dynos
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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby Dynos » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:46 am

Hello are you doing this exercice this year?
2019 Champion! 2022 Champion!

Team 1: Superflex, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex WR/TE,1 Sflex

QB:P. Mahomes, R.Tannehill, J.Hurts
RB: E.Elliott,James Robinson, Chris Carson, L.Fournette, T.Etienne , Tony Pollard,hassan haskins,donta foreman, jaylen warren
WR: Justin Jefferson A.J Brown, M.Thomas, Marquise Brown, T.Lockett, skyy moore, romeo doubs, alec pierce Donovan Peoples-Jones, J.Palmer
TE: kyle pitts, juwan johnson,mckitty

2021 Champion!
Team 2: Superflex, Start 1Qb, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex Wr/TE. 1 SFlex, 1 Flex RB/WR/TE
QB: J.Herbert, Z.Wilson, K.Cousins, K.Pickett,K.Mond
RB: J.Taylor, JK Dobbins, N.Harris, N.Hines, G.Edwards, James Cook, J.Ford, Dameon Pierce, P.Strong, D.Foreman (Jermaine Burton Devy)
WR: J.Chase,Garett Wilson , B.Aiyuk, C.Sutton, R.Bateman, G.Davis, M.Hardman,J.Palmer,
TE: D.Waller R.Tonyan, B.Jordan, Cameron Brate, Cade Otton, G.Everett

jomaed
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Re: Success Profiler Study

Postby jomaed » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:56 am

Dynos wrote: Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:46 am Hello are you doing this exercice this year?
x2


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