Pre-Combine WR Board

[DynoScout]

Hey forum members,
Similar to last year I'm posting my Pre-Combine Boards. Today I've got notes on my top 25 WR, and I've studied another 10 or so. I appreciate productive discussion and feedback. Some of the smartest fantasy football players I've met troll through here, so thanks for taking the time to read and add your thoughts.

Thanks!
-DynoScout

[DynoScout]

WR
1. Laquon Treadwell - Not much needs to be said. Everyone knows about him. Strong consideration at 1.01.
2. Michael Thomas (OSU) - Closer to Treadwell than #3 on my WR Board. Deceptive mover. Rugged. Clean footwork. Clean routes. 4.55ish is fast enough for me at his size, because he wins deep in ways that don’t rely on pure speed.
3. Sterling Shepard - Short not small. Does not profile strictly to the slot in my eyes. I feel he can win outside with clean routes, veteran-caliber nuance, and good enough athleticism.
4. Leonte Carroo - Explosive in short areas and runs clean routes against multiple coverage styles. Plays the ball well in the air. Finishes plays. Consistent.
5. Tyler Boyd - Very productive do-everything player for a limited offense. Not consistently explosive in his movements but flashes ability that would warrant a higher ranking here. Can win the ball in the air at times, but also gets outmuscled, out-positioned, out-athleted. Profiles most cleanly into the slot, but could carve out a Stevie Johnson-Keenan Allen type role as an outside player.
6. Josh Doctson - Tall skinny player. I question his ability to consistently beat physical coverage that gets into his frame close to the line of scrimmage. Once released down the field shows the ability to track the ball in the air and make wow-catches. I think he’s a good enough athlete, but I don’t think he’s a good enough technician right now. Slightly older prospect and would like to see some parts of his game further along than they are right now.
7. Corey Coleman - Admittedly tough eval for me. Flashes game-breaking ability. Early on I think he will be a one-to-two trick pony that won’t be running as free from NFL coverage as he did at Baylor. He’s a better athlete than I originally thought, but on a size-adjusted basis I’m not completely sold. Shows a ton of promise and can far out-perform this ranking if he takes to NFL coaching and develops more grit to his game. I want to see him attack every play, until he does I think he’s a role player more than a featured WR.
8. DeRunnya Wilson - Smooth mover for a big man. Inconsistent effort level. When his number is called, and the effort is there, he’s a tough cover. For being 6’5” Wilson sinks his hips and transitions his weight pretty well. His footwork needs to be tightened up but shows raw promise. Could be best as a big-slot.
9. Keyarris Garrett - Shows traits similar to Treadwell and Doctson, but without the fan-fare and elevated price-tag. Target player for me late, ultimately I think consensus will be much lower than this on Garrett.
10. Pharoh Cooper - Dynamic slot player who will rise higher than this if he goes to an offense in need of some juice from the Y position.
11. Will Fuller - Short and small. Surprising TD production in college gives some hope. Needs to fill out his frame and run as fast as projected for me to interested. At his size, you’re either DeSean Jackson or you’re not. He could be and that’s why I’m hedging bets here.
12. Braxton MIller - Most know the story. Older prospect who hasn’t played WR very long. Could be a 3-sigma athlete, and needs to be for me to be interested. Very boom/bust. The boom could be big enough to net out as WR2 in this class when it’s all said and done.
13. Rashard Higgins - Uber productive in 2014. Good production in 2015. Seems too slight and not explosive enough in short areas to consistently win against NFL coverage. I think he’ll be a useful NFL player without ever being a fantasy-football difference maker. That said, in the right type of situation could carve out a James Jones-like career with stretches of fantasy consideration when the stars align.
14. Michael Thomas (SMISS) - Spends a lot of time open. Technically sound. Useful NFL player who could run into Allen Hurns-like fantasy value if the situation allows it.
15. Malcolm Mitchell - Quietly on my radar as a late-round target player. Had multiple injuries at Georgia that hides his NFL-starter level upside. If he carves out that kind of role, he has the ability to out-perform this ranking.
16. Marquez North - Signing day darling who never really got it going at Tennessee. The upside and potential are still there. Not sure he ever figures it out.
17. Kenny Lawler - Smooth but not overly explosive. Skilled but techniques are not consistent integrated. Runs some routes very well, other cuts/routes need more development. Decent upside to be a productive bye-week option for some dynasty teams.
18. Cayleb Jones - Good size, but doesn’t always maximize it. Nice fluidity but questionable overall athleticism. Has a felony assault charge (reduced to a misdemeanor) in his background while enrolled at University of Texas.
19. Tajae Sharpe - Has capacity to develop into a good, dependable pro without ever consistently running into enough volume to be a fantasy football difference maker. With sufficient volume would obviously be a PPR asset, but talent level means he would probably always be looking over his shoulder as his NFL team added players around him.
20. Aaron Burbridge - Adequate size and adequate movement skills but not a game-breaker. Profiles as a grinder who will likely always offer more value to his NFL team than his dynasty owners.
21. Roger Lewis - Game-breaker but questionable character concerns. Discount Corey Coleman if you can stomach his past.
22. Bralon Addison - Dynamic 0-60 burst that allows him to outrun angles. Compact build. Lacks height and length - not a jump ball player despite competitive spirit. Probably a game-plan dependent role player in the NFL.
23. DeMarcus Ayers - Dynamic athlete who carves out a role immediately as a return specialist. With time to develop could scratch out a decent snap share in offenses that go primarily three-wide. Played with renewed sense of commitment this year following tragic and unexpected death of his brother in July.
24. D’Haquille Williams - Was never as high on him as most, but if he’s got his head on straight I could see him developing into an effective big-slot...a poor man’s Jordan Matthews - if he ever even gets a shot.
25. Hunter Sharp - Consistent producer who should carve out a home in the NFL, may start on a practice squad.
26. Paul McRoberts
27. Charone Peake
28. Jay Lee
29. Geromino Allison
30. Jalin Marshall
31. Nelson Spruce
32. Jordan Williams
33. Thomas Duarte
34. Mekale McKay
35. Devon Cajuste

[DynoScout]

Can't tell if this is too controversial or not controversial enough...
Fire away!

-DynoScout

[DynoScout]

Guys I"m generally higher on than consensus:
Shepard
Carroo
Garrett

And why:
Shepard - I think he can be a dynamic Z opposite someone who is popping the lid for him. I want him in ATL, but I think he can be productive anywhere. He is not 'just a slot (Y)' in my eyes.
Carroo - His game consistently impresses me. I don't find myself wondering, 'Why did he do that? What happened there? Will this work in the NFL?' Production, technique, athleticism, mindset - I don't have any unchecked boxes.
Garrett - I don't know...when I watch him I come away thinking he translates. I don't think he's going to be an elite athlete, but I think he offers enough there to maximize his best traits - size and intent. I don't think he's more than a Day 3 pick but he's someone I'll be monitoring because I think what he offers has a high probability of being fantasy relevant down the road.

[dlf_robw]

Love the work you have put into these.

We align on many guys on this board, which may shake your confidence a bit.

I am higher on Coleman myself. I have seen questions as to his effort without the football and his route tree (valid), but Baylor is just weird. They do things differently and from what I understand they want their receivers catching breathers if they're not involved in the play. I feel his dynamic athleticism (Combine is about to get blown up) and tenaciousness make him a safe bet to be a playmaker.

Our top three are the same, and I don't see it changing for me. Have you looked at Byron Marshall, or are you viewing him as a RB?

[DynoScout]

Love the work you have put into these.

We align on many guys on this board, which may shake your confidence a bit.

I am higher on Coleman myself. I have seen questions as to his effort without the football and his route tree (valid), but Baylor is just weird. They do things differently and from what I understand they want their receivers catching breathers if they're not involved in the play. I feel his dynamic athleticism (Combine is about to get blown up) and tenaciousness make him a safe bet to be a playmaker.

Our top three are the same, and I don't see it changing for me. Have you looked at Byron Marshall, or are you viewing him as a RB?

Thanks for stopping by and weighing in, Rob. I'll take it as a positive that we're aligned 1-3.

I know in my head that I'm too hard on Coleman. I know conceptually that I need to NOT hold certain things against him...that demonstrations of passivity could be entirely due to coaching/environment. You can see in his demeanor and on short hitches that he's got some 'never-quit/fiery competitor' in him. But my gut just can't reconcile what my eyes see (on all those other plays) and what my brain knows. To be fair I would be THRILLED to draft him where I have him ranked - but I don't think I'll ever get that option.

RE: Byron Marshall - I have him on my RB board at this time. I struggled with that decision, but it boils down to how I project him. I think he will be more valuable to an NFL team in a Theo Riddick-like role than as a slot WR. But, I'm very interested to see what the NFL thinks, both in terms of combine position group and what team drafts him to play which position.

Cheers,
DynoScout

[dlf_robw]

I saw him on the RB list when I jumped over there. Suppose it would have behooved me to read there first.

Marshall is interesting. Has some unique production and should fare well at the Combine (assuming he can participate). Kind of lost in the shuffle right now.

[rubber_duck]

Nice list, and I like that you included a few of your thoughts on each player as well. At this point in the process I am focused on getting the top players evaluated to my satisfaction. It isn't until after the NFL has drafted that I take a long look at the rest of the class. The 2016 class makes me very uneasy at all 3 major positions: QB, RB and WR. For receiver my top rankings are:

1 Tyler Boyd - excellent hands & very good routes. His strength is good but not over powering, but he does still display the "my ball" attitude. He is fast and smooth, but lacks suddenness. He has a very high floor.

2 Pharoh Cooper & Corey Coleman - I'll just say these guys are above Treadwell on my list. But again, I am not overly excited about this WR class in general.

4 Laquon Treadwell - Dominant blocker. Great "my ball" attitude. Difficult to tackle. Speed is good enough. He seems unable to separate from defenders, but manages to catch the ball anyway ... much like Jordan Matthews. I see him with a high ceiling and a low floor.

[yooperbacker]

I think this is the lowest I've seen Treadwell ranked. Very interesting since you named most of the traits that make a 21 year old wr with prototypical size so appealing. Are you really high on Boyd, Cooper, and Coleman or is there something you see that makes Treadwell ranked so low?

[rubber_duck]

Receiver size is important, but it is not the only thing I look at. It isn't even the first thing I look at. I consider Boyd to be a superior football player to Treadwell.

A single ranking system is not adequate for a game as complicated as fantasy football. For example, if I was in the market for a receiver with the highest upside, then I would be ranking Coleman and Treadwell at the top of the list. I would also take a long look at Braxton Miller.

With my current approach to the game I am looking to take high ranking rookie receivers with the highest floor. That immediately takes Miller out of the rankings even though his size and measurables are great. That same approach also bumps a couple of players ahead of Treadwell, since there are a couple of things in his game that may make the NFL transition difficult for him.

[yooperbacker]

That's what I'm interested in. I see everything he does transitioning to the NFL. What do you see that gives you pause? As for Boyd, I definitely don't see him having a higher floor. He out athletes college corners much like Parker at Louisville. The problem is that I don't think he is as good of an athlete as Parker and is also lighter in the shorts. I think Boyd has got to get more physical if he ever wants to be a wr2 in the league. His complete lack of burst will cap his upside IMO.

[rubber_duck]

I would prefer a player that displays good burst versus one that does not. However, there are plenty of very good receivers in the NFL that seem to lack that quality. In watching film of Amari Cooper last season I was noted he was a very smooth runner and also lacked signs of significant burst. Keenan Allen also fits that bill. Fitzgerald is another one.

I don't put such a premium on burst for WR as I do for RBs. Receivers can make up for a lack of burst with other route running techniques. Once again, though, I do prefer receivers to have that extra pop ... it's just not a deal breaker.

Treadwell has a lot of tools for success. The fact that he cannot get open versus college cornerbacks is one of my concerns. He wins most battles for the ball, which is a huge plus and the entire reason he has had success to this point. With improved coaching at the NFL level, Treadwell's route running should get better and allow him to gain some separation. There are a lot of comparisons made between Treadwell and Dez Bryant. I definitely see that. I can also see Michael Clayton, however.

[yooperbacker]

That's a fair point. Treadwell always seems to make a contested catch rather than streaking wide open. I think the pro scouts are seeing (all 22) Treadwell getting bracket coverage on almost every play. A guy like that draws a crowd. One common theme in the Treadwell tape is that there never seems to be a defender very far away. My biggest concern with Treadwell is the lack of big time production. I'm giving him a pass on that for 2 reasons: injury and coming from a spread attack with many weapons and inefficient passer.

[RightlegTucker]

Love seeing Shepard near the top of the board, he's my favorite prospect in this draft. I'm hoping to scoop him up late in the 1st this year. The more I watch this group the more I like them. I think a guy like Carroo could be overlooked as well and end up being a good value pick. I really like your Keenan Allen comp for Boyd, that's who he reminded me of as well. I'd probably had him higher if it weren't for his off the field/effort concerns. I've seen people criticize his route running but I think his main issue is that he simply doesn't put the effort into running them properly, rounds his cuts rather than breaking hard at times. I haven't watched anything on Garrett yet. I'll make sure to give him a look. Nice write up as always. Here's what I have as my top 10 at this point.

1) Laquon Treadwell
2) Corey Coleman
3) Mike Thomas
4) Josh Doctson
5) Sterling Shepard
6) Tyler Boyd
7) Leonte Carroo
8) Will Fuller
9) DeRunnya Wilson
10) Pharaoh Cooper

[DynoScout]

Nice list, and I like that you included a few of your thoughts on each player as well. At this point in the process I am focused on getting the top players evaluated to my satisfaction. It isn't until after the NFL has drafted that I take a long look at the rest of the class. The 2016 class makes me very uneasy at all 3 major positions: QB, RB and WR. For receiver my top rankings are:

1 Tyler Boyd - excellent hands & very good routes. His strength is good but not over powering, but he does still display the "my ball" attitude. He is fast and smooth, but lacks suddenness. He has a very high floor.

2 Pharoh Cooper & Corey Coleman - I'll just say these guys are above Treadwell on my list. But again, I am not overly excited about this WR class in general.

4 Laquon Treadwell - Dominant blocker. Great "my ball" attitude. Difficult to tackle. Speed is good enough. He seems unable to separate from defenders, but manages to catch the ball anyway ... much like Jordan Matthews. I see him with a high ceiling and a low floor.

Interesting stuff! Thanks for sharing - and for the dialog with Yooper, too.
(Sorry I am a few days late - family matters popped up this week.)

First, I agree that this class has me uneasy. It was difficult to parse out my preferences looking player to player. Ultimately I sometimes got the feeling I was choosing between a flawed player and a long shot - not a good feeling.

As for the 4 WR you've listed here - I'll echo that I'm somewhat surprised to see Treadwell this low. I think he is the most physically imposing WR in this class. Even if he doesn't come in with an elite 40 time, he is physical enough in his releases to back off NFL defensive backs. On top of that I think he's still growing into his paws physically, so I sense there is raw physical upside not yet fully tapped.