Another LB question

[SteelCitizen]

TL;DR - Who are some cheap(ish) buy-low LBs that we think can have top 20-30 production this year?

I have a contender in a 24 team league. Last year, my LBs were looking good/great until the Shazier injury. The funny thing is that I had been shopping him all season because he was the LB1 (I think), and I worried long-term about his health, but no takers . So going into this season, my starters are:

Avery Williamson LB NYJ
Vince Williams LB PIT
Duke Riley LB ATL
(Aside from these 3 and Shazier, my only other LB last season was the ghost of David Harris.)

To address the situation, I drafted Malik Jefferson LB CIN at #86 overall (decision made easy thanks to lukky’s Top 12 Rookie LB thread).

But to be more than just competitive, I would like all three of my LB starters to project as top 20-30 options. Who are some cheap(ish) buy-low LBs that we think can have top 20-30 production this year? Or even if they are not cheap, who are guys that you are targeting even at retail price, and what would you pay for them?

[henry1jg]

My favorite of the LBs for just 2018 that fantasy pros has ranked outside the top 30 are:

Tahir Whitehead
Brandon Marshall
Thomas Davis

All should be relatively cheap in dynasty leagues, as none have serious long term appeal. That said, Tahir and Marshall (assuming health) should be every down LBs. Davis is suspended 4 games and has to deal with Shaq Thompson stealing some/all 3rd down snaps, but he should be mega cheap and is a proven producer.

[lukkynumber13]

Can you post a list of available free agents?

[SteelCitizen]

...

Tahir Whitehead
Brandon Marshall
Thomas Davis

...

Thanks for the names. What would you be willing to pay for them? Late 2nd? 3rd?

Can you post a list of available free agents?

I can (in the morning), but I am most interested in (fairly) high level producers. I don’t expect to find any on the waivers since ~120 LBs are rostered. But maybe we can sift through the muck to find gold.

[SteelCitizen]

Top 20 available (by 2017 totals):
Ray-Ray Armstrong LB NYG
Derrick Morgan LB TEN
Paul Posluszny LB FA
Sam Acho LB CHI
Kelvin Sheppard LB FA
Nicholas Morrow LB OAK
Lamarr Houston LB FA
Erik Walden LB FA
Marquis Flowers LB NE
Adarius Taylor LB TB
Frank Zombo LB KC
Pernell McPhee LB WAS
Kyler Fackrell LB GB
Chase Allen LB MIA
Za'Darius Smith LB BAL
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB NYJ
Junior Galette LB FA
Mike Hull LB MIA
Anthony Chickillo LB PIT
Brennan Scarlett LB HOU

Top 25 available (by draft):
Jerrell Freeman LB FA
Paul Posluszny LB FA
Ray-Ray Armstrong LB NYG
Malcolm Smith LB SF
Anthony Chickillo LB PIT
David Harris LB FA
Derrick Morgan LB TEN
Jonathan Casillas LB FA
Ramik Wilson LB LA
Josey Jewell LB DEN
Pernell McPhee LB WAS
Jelani Jenkins LB FA
Zach Orr LB FA
Nicholas Morrow LB OAK
Tamba Hali LB FA
Nick Bellore LB DET
Mike Hull LB MIA
Ryan Anderson LB WAS
Sam Hubbard LB CIN
James Harrison LB FA
Adarius Taylor LB TB
Uchenna Nwosu LB LAC
Kemoko Turay LB IND
James Laurinaitis LB FA
DeAndre Levy LB FA

[lukkynumber13]

These are all guys I'd look at picking up if they are FREE:

Kenny Young
Josh Bynes
Matt Milano
BJ Goodson
Derrick Johnson
Kyzir White
Cory Littleton
Mason Foster

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Guys who are almost certainly owned but are potentially good "buy lows":

Deone Buccanon, should benefit from the switch to a 4-3.

Danny Trevathan, always banged up so his owner may want to shed him. He's a stud when healthy tho.

Zach Cunningham, if his owner isn't a dynasty diehard then he may want to sell low on him, since Cunningham didn't put up good numbers last year. Don't worry, Cunningham will be a stud in 2018 and beyond.

Darius Leonard. Colts D might be on the field for like 1200 snaps this year. If he falls at all, snatch this dude up!

Eric Kendricks won't be cheap, but if you can buy him at the price of a mid-level LB2 or less, it's not a bad idea. He's about to explode statistically, and is right there with Deion Jones talent-wise.

Avery Williamson should feast in New York. Similar to Leonard, you're basically just looking to buy a high snap count with him, not so much relying on talent.

Tahir Whitehead - see above ^^^

Jordan Hicks' owner might be frustrated with his lack of health and sell him super cheap - I'm a buyer.

Fred Warner is falling in rookie drafts. I have no clue why, as he has a chance to lead SF linebackers in snaps this year.

KJ Wright is always undervalued. Worth a price check in your league.

[Defender]

Marquis Flowers LB NE projects to be the WLB. Should be startable in your format, and sitting on your waivers.

[goggleface]

I second Matt Milano and Corey Littleton.

[BigJoeWall72]

Eric Kendricks won't be cheap, but if you can buy him at the price of a mid-level LB2 or less, it's not a bad idea. He's about to explode statistically, and is right there with Deion Jones talent-wise.

Fred Warner is falling in rookie drafts. I have no clue why, as he has a chance to lead SF linebackers in snaps this year.

These two points made me raise my eyebrows - I'm curious to hear more from you about these two...

Kendricks: Was there a scheme change or something? He's been a solid LB2 for a few years, what do you think will cause a statistical explosion?

Warner: I don't think it's a lock that Warner beats out Malcolm Smith for a starting spot. I also saw that you've got him in your second tier of LBs. What makes you so confident he will thrive right out of the gate with Malcolm Smith still in town?

[dlf_tomk]

Marquis Flowers LB NE projects to be the WLB. Should be startable in your format, and sitting on your waivers.

What makes you think this is right? I haven't seen anything to suggest they want to move on from Van Noy and Hightower [in his role] as the top two options

[lukkynumber13]

Eric Kendricks won't be cheap, but if you can buy him at the price of a mid-level LB2 or less, it's not a bad idea. He's about to explode statistically, and is right there with Deion Jones talent-wise.

Fred Warner is falling in rookie drafts. I have no clue why, as he has a chance to lead SF linebackers in snaps this year.

These two points made me raise my eyebrows - I'm curious to hear more from you about these two...

Kendricks: Was there a scheme change or something? He's been a solid LB2 for a few years, what do you think will cause a statistical explosion?

Warner: I don't think it's a lock that Warner beats out Malcolm Smith for a starting spot. I also saw that you've got him in your second tier of LBs. What makes you so confident he will thrive right out of the gate with Malcolm Smith still in town?

You certainly bring up very valid points.

For Kendricks, I simply love his game. I think he's probably a top-5 LB talent in the league right now (he definitely is if you factor in age). His numbers have been suppressed a fair bit compared to his talent, for a variety of factors, and some of those factors (such as scheme) aren't necessarily changing. But I'm subscribing to the law of averages here. Linebackers as talented as him simply don't go too long without having at least a couple years of elite production. It may seem irrational but that's my logic

As for Warner, I could be about 5 months too early, but I do think he's the 2nd best LB on the squad. I don't see Smith as anything more than a stop gap role player.

[dawgs4life]

Marquis Flowers LB NE projects to be the WLB. Should be startable in your format, and sitting on your waivers.

What makes you think this is right? I haven't seen anything to suggest they want to move on from Van Noy and Hightower [in his role] as the top two options

I was thinking this same thing because of his decent play when he wasn’t in last year and his high athletesim. But he was my first drop this off-season for rookies. Still watching him but not adding, yet.....but I don’t see anything to suggest he is a for sure starter or even a maybe. My opinion is all based off his test8ng numbers. But he has never had a chance to start except a few games last year. Tom, did you run any efficiency numbers on him when he did start? I know small sample size but would be cool to know,

[Vick2Crumpler87]

I'm actually really excited about Fred Warner, I think he'll be well worth my investment of my 7th round draft pick!

[Defender]

Marquis Flowers LB NE projects to be the WLB. Should be startable in your format, and sitting on your waivers.

What makes you think this is right? I haven't seen anything to suggest they want to move on from Van Noy and Hightower [in his role] as the top two options

Ha, somehow I forgot the Pats have run a base 3-4 for the past 10+ years. The funny thing is that both Rotoworld and ourlads list the personnel in a 4-3 scheme. (I doubt Patricia’s departure will harken that much change.) But I agree, I wouldn’t count on Flowers being a starter.

[dlf_tomk]

It's multiple in NE but I classify them as a 43 scheme first and foremost.
But their LB usage is really unusual. They often line up with only one true inside LB. Hightower plays virtually as an additional edge guy and they run 3 safeties a load. But it's not a big nickel scheme. Chung isn't playing as a LB in all but name. Hes moving around as is McCourty. It's only Tavon Wilson that's really predictable.
Fascinating scheme.
But long story short - there's really only room for one productive LB IMO. And unless something happens that's Van Noy for me