IDP Rookie Hit Rates

[icemic]

Last June I started a huge project to investigate hit rates for rookie draft picks. It seems as though industry experts seem to be really down on rookie draft picks and usually recommend selling rookie picks for proven veterans. I heard some ridiculous numbers being thrown out like only 18% of rookie draft picks hit and only 7% from the third round on. My research showed that those numbers are way off, especially if IDP is included in your draft. I could go on and on about this and would be happy to discuss more or answer questions about my process, but to keep things brief, I basically defined a hit as a player who puts up at least one season of starter-level fantasy production. This data is based on almost 1000 rookie draft picks from 2006-2015 (I left out 2016 & 2017 because I wanted to allow at least three years for a rookie to hit). So here are hit rates from fantasy rookie drafts broken down by round, overall, IDP only, and broken out by IDP positions:

[icemic]

Here it is broken out by each IDP position. If you're interested in a ton more charts that breaks down all this rookie draft information you can check out my twitter media @DRRankings.

[Ruggenater]

So you're looking at NFL draft round here, right? The stats you hear are about dynasty rookie draft round. I'm surprised to see 0% for DTs in round 1--wasn't Fletcher Cox a first round pick?

[icemic]

No these are fantasy rookie draft hit rates. I also have data for NFL Draft hit rates by round, I’ll post those in a separate thread.

[lukkynumber13]

Interesting post, thank you for your work in sharing this!

[IR1]

Thanks, was just wondering about this. Still have a couple months but have multiple first round picks and was toying with idp’s based on bpa

[icemic]

In a ten team league I think you’d be hard pressed to take an IDP in round 1 (depending on scoring). Roquon and Chubb would be the only candidates in my opinion. Given their pedigree and expected draft capital I would see both of them as extremely safe picks. So if you are sitting pretty at RB/WR and could use some defensive help I could see a case being made to take one of those guys at the very end of round 1. You’d likely be looking at tier three or four RB at that point.

[IR1]

In a ten team league I think you’d be hard pressed to take an IDP in round 1 (depending on scoring). Roquon and Chubb would be the only candidates in my opinion. Given their pedigree and expected draft capital I would see both of them as extremely safe picks. So if you are sitting pretty at RB/WR and could use some defensive help I could see a case being made to take one of those guys at the very end of round 1. You’d likely be looking at tier three or four RB at that point.

Agree, those are the two I had in mind, plenty of time to decide, landing spots for several players will change my rankings