Last June I started a huge project to investigate hit rates for rookie draft picks. It seems as though industry experts seem to be really down on rookie draft picks and usually recommend selling rookie picks for proven veterans. I heard some ridiculous numbers being thrown out like only 18% of rookie draft picks hit and only 7% from the third round on. My research showed that those numbers are way off, especially if IDP is included in your draft. I could go on and on about this and would be happy to discuss more or answer questions about my process, but to keep things brief, I basically defined a hit as a player who puts up at least one season of starter-level fantasy production. This data is based on almost 1000 rookie draft picks from 2006-2015 (I left out 2016 & 2017 because I wanted to allow at least three years for a rookie to hit). So here are hit rates from fantasy rookie drafts broken down by round, overall, IDP only, and broken out by IDP positions:
IDP Rookie Hit Rates
IDP Rookie Hit Rates
16 Team Dynasty Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DT, 2DE, 3LB, 2CB, 2S .5 ppr
QB - Lawrence, Tua
RB - Henderson, Javonte Williams, Lindsay, Stevenson, Jaret Patterson
WR - McLaurin, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Terrace Marshall, Christian Kirk, Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Mike Strachan
TE - Logan Thomas, OJ Howard, Granson, Tremble
DT - Oliver, Kinlaw
DE - Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Jordan, Hendrickson, Paye
LB - Kendricks, Mosley, Simmons, Parsons, Holcomb, Okereke, Barnes, Barton, Mykal Walker
CB - Carlton Davis, Kenny Moore, Sneed
S - Poyer, Khari Willis, Dugger, Peppers
QB - Lawrence, Tua
RB - Henderson, Javonte Williams, Lindsay, Stevenson, Jaret Patterson
WR - McLaurin, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Terrace Marshall, Christian Kirk, Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Mike Strachan
TE - Logan Thomas, OJ Howard, Granson, Tremble
DT - Oliver, Kinlaw
DE - Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Jordan, Hendrickson, Paye
LB - Kendricks, Mosley, Simmons, Parsons, Holcomb, Okereke, Barnes, Barton, Mykal Walker
CB - Carlton Davis, Kenny Moore, Sneed
S - Poyer, Khari Willis, Dugger, Peppers
Re: IDP Rookie Hit Rates
Here it is broken out by each IDP position. If you're interested in a ton more charts that breaks down all this rookie draft information you can check out my twitter media @DRRankings.
16 Team Dynasty Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DT, 2DE, 3LB, 2CB, 2S .5 ppr
QB - Lawrence, Tua
RB - Henderson, Javonte Williams, Lindsay, Stevenson, Jaret Patterson
WR - McLaurin, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Terrace Marshall, Christian Kirk, Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Mike Strachan
TE - Logan Thomas, OJ Howard, Granson, Tremble
DT - Oliver, Kinlaw
DE - Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Jordan, Hendrickson, Paye
LB - Kendricks, Mosley, Simmons, Parsons, Holcomb, Okereke, Barnes, Barton, Mykal Walker
CB - Carlton Davis, Kenny Moore, Sneed
S - Poyer, Khari Willis, Dugger, Peppers
QB - Lawrence, Tua
RB - Henderson, Javonte Williams, Lindsay, Stevenson, Jaret Patterson
WR - McLaurin, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Terrace Marshall, Christian Kirk, Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Mike Strachan
TE - Logan Thomas, OJ Howard, Granson, Tremble
DT - Oliver, Kinlaw
DE - Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Jordan, Hendrickson, Paye
LB - Kendricks, Mosley, Simmons, Parsons, Holcomb, Okereke, Barnes, Barton, Mykal Walker
CB - Carlton Davis, Kenny Moore, Sneed
S - Poyer, Khari Willis, Dugger, Peppers
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Re: IDP Rookie Hit Rates
So you're looking at NFL draft round here, right? The stats you hear are about dynasty rookie draft round. I'm surprised to see 0% for DTs in round 1--wasn't Fletcher Cox a first round pick?
12 Team Superflex - PPR, 0.25 PPC - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/Superflex
QB: L Jackson, Tagovailoa, Rodgers, Pickett, Tannehill
RB: Swift, Pacheco, Sanders, Hubbard, Spears, Dillon, Herbert, McLaughlin, Chandler, Dowdle
WR: DeVonta, Waddle, Aiyuk, Nacua, McLaurin, Hopkins, M Williams, Mingo, Wan’Dale, Hyatt
TE: Kelce, Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
QB: L Jackson, Tagovailoa, Rodgers, Pickett, Tannehill
RB: Swift, Pacheco, Sanders, Hubbard, Spears, Dillon, Herbert, McLaughlin, Chandler, Dowdle
WR: DeVonta, Waddle, Aiyuk, Nacua, McLaurin, Hopkins, M Williams, Mingo, Wan’Dale, Hyatt
TE: Kelce, Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
Re: IDP Rookie Hit Rates
No these are fantasy rookie draft hit rates. I also have data for NFL Draft hit rates by round, I’ll post those in a separate thread.
16 Team Dynasty Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DT, 2DE, 3LB, 2CB, 2S .5 ppr
QB - Lawrence, Tua
RB - Henderson, Javonte Williams, Lindsay, Stevenson, Jaret Patterson
WR - McLaurin, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Terrace Marshall, Christian Kirk, Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Mike Strachan
TE - Logan Thomas, OJ Howard, Granson, Tremble
DT - Oliver, Kinlaw
DE - Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Jordan, Hendrickson, Paye
LB - Kendricks, Mosley, Simmons, Parsons, Holcomb, Okereke, Barnes, Barton, Mykal Walker
CB - Carlton Davis, Kenny Moore, Sneed
S - Poyer, Khari Willis, Dugger, Peppers
QB - Lawrence, Tua
RB - Henderson, Javonte Williams, Lindsay, Stevenson, Jaret Patterson
WR - McLaurin, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Terrace Marshall, Christian Kirk, Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Mike Strachan
TE - Logan Thomas, OJ Howard, Granson, Tremble
DT - Oliver, Kinlaw
DE - Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Jordan, Hendrickson, Paye
LB - Kendricks, Mosley, Simmons, Parsons, Holcomb, Okereke, Barnes, Barton, Mykal Walker
CB - Carlton Davis, Kenny Moore, Sneed
S - Poyer, Khari Willis, Dugger, Peppers
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Re: IDP Rookie Hit Rates
Interesting post, thank you for your work in sharing this!
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA
Re: IDP Rookie Hit Rates
Thanks, was just wondering about this. Still have a couple months but have multiple first round picks and was toying with idp’s based on bpa
10Team PPR-QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/PK/flex-DT/DE/DE/LB/LB/LB/CB/CB/S/S/flex
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
Taxi- Kincaid, QJohnston
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
Taxi- Kincaid, QJohnston
Re: IDP Rookie Hit Rates
In a ten team league I think you’d be hard pressed to take an IDP in round 1 (depending on scoring). Roquon and Chubb would be the only candidates in my opinion. Given their pedigree and expected draft capital I would see both of them as extremely safe picks. So if you are sitting pretty at RB/WR and could use some defensive help I could see a case being made to take one of those guys at the very end of round 1. You’d likely be looking at tier three or four RB at that point.
16 Team Dynasty Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DT, 2DE, 3LB, 2CB, 2S .5 ppr
QB - Lawrence, Tua
RB - Henderson, Javonte Williams, Lindsay, Stevenson, Jaret Patterson
WR - McLaurin, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Terrace Marshall, Christian Kirk, Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Mike Strachan
TE - Logan Thomas, OJ Howard, Granson, Tremble
DT - Oliver, Kinlaw
DE - Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Jordan, Hendrickson, Paye
LB - Kendricks, Mosley, Simmons, Parsons, Holcomb, Okereke, Barnes, Barton, Mykal Walker
CB - Carlton Davis, Kenny Moore, Sneed
S - Poyer, Khari Willis, Dugger, Peppers
QB - Lawrence, Tua
RB - Henderson, Javonte Williams, Lindsay, Stevenson, Jaret Patterson
WR - McLaurin, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Terrace Marshall, Christian Kirk, Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Mike Strachan
TE - Logan Thomas, OJ Howard, Granson, Tremble
DT - Oliver, Kinlaw
DE - Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Jordan, Hendrickson, Paye
LB - Kendricks, Mosley, Simmons, Parsons, Holcomb, Okereke, Barnes, Barton, Mykal Walker
CB - Carlton Davis, Kenny Moore, Sneed
S - Poyer, Khari Willis, Dugger, Peppers
Re: IDP Rookie Hit Rates
Agree, those are the two I had in mind, plenty of time to decide, landing spots for several players will change my rankingsicemic wrote: ↑Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:18 pm In a ten team league I think you’d be hard pressed to take an IDP in round 1 (depending on scoring). Roquon and Chubb would be the only candidates in my opinion. Given their pedigree and expected draft capital I would see both of them as extremely safe picks. So if you are sitting pretty at RB/WR and could use some defensive help I could see a case being made to take one of those guys at the very end of round 1. You’d likely be looking at tier three or four RB at that point.
10Team PPR-QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/PK/flex-DT/DE/DE/LB/LB/LB/CB/CB/S/S/flex
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
Taxi- Kincaid, QJohnston
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
Taxi- Kincaid, QJohnston
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