How Do You Evauate Weekly Matchups?

General discussion and team advice concerning IDP Leagues.
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How Do You Evauate Weekly Matchups?

Postby motherlode » Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:27 am

Im talking about non-stud LBs in tackle heavy formats, although i guess insight into other positions could be useful also. Obviously if you have Telvin Smith or Blake Martinez you just plug them in and let the chips fall where they may. But how do you choose between those outside the top 25 LBs that you need to use for BYE weeks or injuries? What factors are you using to make a decision? Or is IDP just as completely random as it starting to feel to me.

I thought starting Tahir Whitehead and Jarrad Davis vs Pitt would be a good matchup for me last night. This season Whitehead had scored 7, 16,14,16,10 and 10 points and Davis had scored 21,12,13 and 14 points. I knew two of Whiteheads bigger games came while Davis was out with his concussion, but they also played together in 4 games where they combined to score 28, 28, 23, and 24 points. But then they go out and throw out this stinker in which they combined for 2 solos, 3 assists and 7 points. The Steelers ran the ball 29 times, right at their weekly average of 29.4 rush attempts per game. They ran 60 total plays, which is slightly lower than their average of 65.4 but pretty close. IDPGuru had the Steelers in the middle of the pack for LB pts allowed (20th). I mean i wasnt expecting Whitehead and Davis to each record 12 solos, a couple of sacks, a turnover and to cure the common cold at halftime. But i just think 7 combined points is almost as unlikely in the other direction. I guess im just trying to figure out if there was any way to see this coming.

And yeah i get it weekly variance and unpredictability and all that. But surely there is some better method for picking between backups and fill ins than just plain ol' guessing.

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Re: How Do You Evauate Weekly Matchups?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:07 am

Honestly I don't know why the Detroit LBs didn't get any tackles. I love starting my LBs and SSs against Leveon Bell

Case in point, I started Tavon Wilson who balled out.
RIVERS, Jimmy G, Dalton, Colt M
NUK/EVANS/K ALLEN/DIGGS/GOLLADAY, Mike W, Sammy, Pettis, M Jones, Gallup, Sherfield, JMatt, A Jones
KITTLE, Herndon, Doyle
DL: BUCKNER/BARNETT/DUNLAP/GRIFFEN/B GRAHAM, Okafor, Okwara, S Richardson, Wolfe, N Spence
LB: WARNER/HITCHENS/MCKINNEY/DANNY T, Van Noy, KJW, Barron, J Houston, Jewell, Ebukam, Morrow, Hodges

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Re: How Do You Evauate Weekly Matchups?

Postby Dyno_7 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:14 pm

I chalk Detroit's night vs Pitt as an anomaly. Even with Bell's ability to slither through front 7's.

I usually look at snap count opportunity before specific matchups. At least when it comes to bye week streamers. Other things I look for are defensive fronts. If the D-line is solid, that should leave clear lines of sight for LB's to ball carriers.
TEAMS 1&2: 10tm. Non-PPR +IDP.
Starters: 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1K-2DL-1EDR-3LB-3DB

QB: C.Wentz, P.Rivers, J.Rosen, L.Jackson.
RB: J.Howard, J.Mixon, L.Fournette.
WR: O.BeckhamJr, M.Thomas, S.Diggs, J.Smith-Schuster, S.Watkins, C.Godwin, C.Sutton, A.Callaway.
TE: R.Gronkowski, Z.Ertz, M.Gesicki, G.Kittle.
DL: D.Hunter, D.Barnett.
EDR: H.Landry.
LB: M.Jack, Z.Cunningham, A.Williamson, L.Vander Esch, C.Littleton.
DB: R.Jones, B.McDougald, S.Williams.

QB: D.Watson.
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, C.Hyde, N.Chubb, A.Jones.
WR: A.Cooper, M.Thomas, J.Smith-Schuster, J.Gordon, M.Williams, K.Golladay, C.Godwin, C.Kirk.
TE: E.Engram, D.Njoku, D.Goedert.
DL: K.Mack, D.Hunter, D.Ware
EDR: V.Miller
LB: T.Smith, M.Jack, D.Jones, Z.Cunningham, T.Edmunds, L.Vander Esch.
DB: B.Baker, D.James, C.Geathers.

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Re: How Do You Evauate Weekly Matchups?

Postby SirJoseppi » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:42 pm

The points allowed by position by team is something I used to not put much stock in, but am starting to now, at least in situations where its a pretty close call between who to start. Ex: Me going with Matthias Farley over Kurt Coleman in week 16, despite Coleman playing the Bucs who gave up one of the highest point totals to opposing safeties all season. Coleman wound up getting 14 points on my bench while Farley only got me about 6 or 7. And wouldn't you know it, I wound up losing by 5 points that week and missing out on a 1.13 draft pick (that matchup was the Toilet Bowl final). This is just one example, but seems like its a halfway decent measuring stick to determine a player's floor on a week to week basis.
12 team IDP league, 0.5 PPR, 1.6 per tackle, 4 per sack/INT:

QB: Big Ben, Alex Smith, Tyrod Taylor
RB: Guice (IR), Sony Michel, Drake, Aaron Jones (S), Marlon Mack, Chris Warren III (IR)
WR: Thielen, Fitz, Agholor, Crabtree, Shepard, Zay Jones, G. Allison, Tre'Quan Smith
TE: Rudolph, Jonnu Smith, Trey Burton, Chris Herndon

DT: David Irving, Kenny Clark
DE: Aaron Donald, Ngakoue, Golden
LB: Martinez, Van Noy, Bradham, Nick Vigil, BJ Goodson, Rashaan Evans, Fred Warner, Josh Bynes, Skai Moore
S: Eric Berry, Geathers, Josh Jones, J. Tartt, Montae Nicholson, DeShon Elliott (IR)
CB: Tre White, Akthello Witherspoon

TS: Sam Darnold, Ito Smith, Richie James, Justin Watson, Auden Tate

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