Kwon Alexander trade value

[Yung Don]

What is Kwon Alexander's value in rookie picks?
Our league uses 1pt tackle, .5pt assist, 3pt forced fumble, 6pt interceptions, 4pt sacks, so it's pretty tackle heavy. 12 teams start 2DL, 2LB, 2DB.
Last season, Kwon Alexander had the most points and I'm thinking about trading for him. Especially because our league is expanding starting positions this year, adding an IDP flex.
Would Kwon be worth a late 1st round rookie pick, say the 2017 1.11?

[bruiser]

no

[lukkynumber13]

The short answer (given succinctly by Bruiser) is NO. There are several reasons why it probably wouldn't be a wise endeavor to buy Kwon, but I will focus on 3.

1. This is simple. Don't buy high. Kwon had an incredible season in 2016. His owner will want a premium (as he should) and so you'll have to expect more historic seasons to even justify the trade.

2. As seen by L. David, Mosley, and others, it's really tough to predict what LBs will be elite LB1s for multi-year stretches. So much goes into being a stud LB in real life, that doesn't affect being elite in fantasy (think CJ Mosley this year vs Will Compton. One had a fine year as an NFL player, but had a down statistical year, while the other was an LB2, soaking up tackles (mainly assists) on a team with poor choices at LB.

3. LB is an easily replaceable position via rookies and waivers. This kind of ties into the point above, regarding what makes a good fantasy ILB. Guys like Zach Orr, Will Compton, Tahir Whitehead, Nick Bellore, and of course Zach Brown were probably all on waivers this time last year (in my fairly deep signature team, that was the case). They all were startable and some were studs in 206.

So why pay a first for an LB1, when you can draft one in the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft, or better yet, do your research and pick up the next Zach Orr, Kirskey, Nick Bellore, etc off of waivers?

Lastly in answer to your question, his value to me as a buyer, gun to my head, would be an early 2nd in this type of class.

However, as you intimated, only a 1st would probably entice his owner to sell.

[dlf_tomk]

Yep. Everything Lukky says.

Also worth pointing out that young Kwon isn't averse to a missed tackle or 3.

[Yung Don]

Thanks for the replies guys. I understand it's probably easier to get production on waivers instead of by trading regarding the LB position, but I felt like Kwon would put me over the top. But Lukky is right about the consistency thing... I saw his 2015 numbers and they look almost as good as 2016, so I figured he would be a lock for top 10 production for years since he is still only 22. I haven't sent the offer yet but am still considering, and it's still on the table for my team as we move from starting 2 LBs to 3 LBs per team.

[lukkynumber13]

See what you can buy Bowman or Jerrell Freeman for. Both should have another 3+ years as LB1s but WAY cheaper

[bruiser]

Yeah, sorry I was in a hurry this morn and couldn't get all that out. But I'd also endorse all of Lukky's rationale about buying high. There are few.... very few.... IDPs I would give up a 1.11 to acquire.