Landon Collins offer

[Motay316]

What are the opinions of Landon Collins, I can acquire him for a late 2nd and 3rd round pick. He is 22 and has proven himself to be one of the best IDP options for this year, I'm hesitant to pay this much for a DB though. Would this be a massive over pay for a DB or is it justified?

[FiremanEd]

I'm always hesitant to pay that kind of price for a DB. Collins was consistent and solid as a rookie though, and elite this year. My worry is whether he can maintain those INT numbers. If you're paying then you're buying the tackles, understanding that the NYG eventually need to get more productive LBs that may eat some of those. Where exactly are the picks? Whose on waivers? 2 points per tackle is nice, but you also have strong other options on your D. I think I'd stand pat and get an up and comer instead.

I own Collins and wouldn't likely sell for that, but I also wouldn't buy him for that. I'd find a cheaper option before the uptick in production. Hate chasing it.

[pierson242]

You have to view tackles. That's what you pay for. INTs, TDs, all that is unpredictable for the most part usually you can predict tackles. His tackles were decent but as FiremanEd said, eventually those tackles will be taken away by better linebackers. He is a good DB without a doubt but I'm passing on him for that. He still has to prove in his second year he can keep up the INT rate.

[dlf_tomk]

Interesting. Safeties taken in that range over the last 3 years are:

Landon Collins #25
Calvin Pryor #33
Karl Joseph #34
Keanu Neal #38
Haha C-D #39

Those players average 119 points as rookies. Collins had 233 as a reference [your league settings may vary of course].

Unless you think you can pick up another piece at that range in the draft of a similar value [on the balance of probabilities I doubt it] then it's not worth doing for me.

Apologies for the overly specific reasoning. I understand what potential is of course but I'm spending a lot of time on expected rookie performance at the mo and I think it's valid for situations like this.

[Motay316]

It's 2 points per tackle. I get what everyone is saying. Thanks for the feedback, I'm sure their are cheaper options out there at this point.

[lukkynumber13]

I disagree with the consensus here. Yes I agree you should never pay retail for a top DB, but if you can get Collins for an early 3rd that's not retail, that's wholesale. I might not pay a mid 2nd, but anything after that absolutely

[lukkynumber13]

Oh shoot I misread. Late 2nd AND a 3rd? Then probably not. Although if your league values DB as much as a WR or RB then I would. But it's probably not that type of league I would assume?

[Motay316]

Oh shoot I misread. Late 2nd AND a 3rd? Then probably not. Although if your league values DB as much as a WR or RB then I would. But it's probably not that type of league I would assume?

No its not, its 2 pts per tackle, 1 pt per assist, 6 pts for sack and 6 for interception. I would definitely be overpaying for Collins but the guy is probably the DPOY and just 22. With that being said I will probably not pull the trigger on this deal.

[IR1]

That's close for me, I have him in one league where he was the number 7 point getter overall

[justdex]

I'd probably get him, yeah theres other DB's, but like discussed he is elite and still only 22. Another 10 years of high production for a 2 and 3? Doesnt seem like to much. For me it would depend on the second and where it is though... Maybe try to get a future second back.

[dlf_tomk]

Another 10 years of high production...

This is exactly why I would be tempted. We all overestimate longevity so much.

I guess it's possible he's that good for that long but how many IDPs can you name that have been top rank for that long? or even close?

At DB there's really not that many because production falls off so sharply. I've shared this a few times but this is distribution of tackles by age by position for IDPs:



So yeah hes young and he could be good for a long time but it's unlikely. There's normally far more churn and plenty of IDPs are on the downslide by their mid 20s..

[@BillLatin]

I'm usually a stream DB guy, but Collins is a difference maker, especially in that scoring. I would maybe counter if that was the first offer, but it's a fair "ish" offer imo.

[justdex]

Another 10 years of high production...

This is exactly why I would be tempted. We all overestimate longevity so much.

I guess it's possible he's that good for that long but how many IDPs can you name that have been top rank for that long? or even close?

At DB there's really not that many because production falls off so sharply. I've shared this a few times but this is distribution of tackles by age by position for IDPs:



So yeah hes young and he could be good for a long time but it's unlikely. There's normally far more churn and plenty of IDPs are on the downslide by their mid 20s..

I suppose 10 years was an exaggeration, not to say he won't be an impact player in real life for the long. But I would expect another at least 5 years of fantasy top end play and isn't that more than we can say for most?

[dlf_tomk]

Sorry dude. I know you weren't talking too literally. I just wanted to make the point that FF turnover is faster than we think it is. And IDP turnover is faster than offensive.

As always if you love a player then go after him. Its always much better to own players you like. But I think it's generally not worth paying too much for an IDP who isn't a top pass rusher

[Motay316]

I ended up pulling the trigger on this deal, ended up being a late 2nd and a mid-4th for Collins.