Landon Collins - IDP MVP?

[bruiser]

So, in conducting a study of the IDP community (see my signature), I decided to ask one final question "Who is your IDP MVP for 2016?" To my surprise 50% of the early replies say Landon Collins.

I understand his floor has been solid, and he's a reliable start, but just looking at the positional advantage: it's surprising to see so many votes for the top safety as the top IDP. Even last year when Reshad Jones put up monester numbers, I wouldn't have considered him for MVP. I look for a player that just crushes the numbers vs the baseline starter. Collins doesn't do that in my leagues 32 (starting safeties).

Admittedly, there isn't a JJ Watt this year, but I am finding some candidates that offer more positional advantage than the top safety.

[bruiser]

5 - Landon Collins
3 - Khalil Mack
1 - Kwon Alexander
1 - Aaron Donald
1 - Von Miller

[lukkynumber13]

I don't see how Donald could be the MVP, he just hasn't been the game changer Mack has been (over the past 10 games or so). Collins would be my 2nd pick after Mack, and then Ogletree

[bruiser]

I have Donald as my MVP in DT premium leagues. I don't own him this year, but just the raw numbers show his positional advantage to be a little more than Collins. Given the importance of DL in real football, I would use that to be a tie-breaker if the numbers were split.

Khalil Mack is about a split with Kwon Alexander (now with Kuechly out) in terms of positional advantage in my leagues, and Collins is right there with them. My leagues are super deep, so I could understand how Collins could be more valuable in different formats. My only personal feeling about that: HE'S A SAFETY! Most bad defenses have a good IDP safety that they'd swap in a heartbeat for a true difference-maker. I know, I know.... I'm being shallow.

[lukkynumber13]

I have Donald as my MVP in DT premium leagues. I don't own him this year, but just the raw numbers show his positional advantage to be a little more than Collins. Given the importance of DL in real football, I would use that to be a tie-breaker if the numbers were split.

Khalil Mack is about a split with Kwon Alexander (now with Kuechly out) in terms of positional advantage in my leagues, and Collins is right there with them. My leagues are super deep, so I could understand how Collins could be more valuable in different formats. My only personal feeling about that: HE'S A SAFETY! Most bad defenses have a good IDP safety that they'd swap in a heartbeat for a true difference-maker. I know, I know.... I'm being shallow.

I totally understand your feelings on Collins, as a safety.

Regarding DTs, in my league (in signature) at least, Donald is only the DT3 this year. Suh and Harrison both have more pts and Suh has arguably the better overall stat line this season even factoring in sacks.

[dlf_tomk]

I see your point Bruiser but in my favourite IDP league Landon C does have top positional advantage.

Landon C
203 total pts
14.5 / gm

#2 safety - Tony Jefferson
162 total pts
11.57 / gm

The only other IDP that comes close to that is Mack. Of course when you break down player vs avg Rank1 etc it might look different but Im not doing all that work until after the season.

And on top of that Collins has had a few games where he was just a monster. I was at the game against the Rams in London where he was all over the field. For the whole of his Ravens/Rams/Eagles stretch in the middle of the season he was dominant.

I considered Mack and Donald too but Collins was excellent.

[bruiser]

Ok, fair points. The real debate at the core of this: which is the standard for IDP formats? We really could throw around 5-10 names as the MVP of any number of IDP formats (of course because JJ Watt is a definitive answer when he is healthy).

I realize that I am walking a fine line when by probing into the IDP standard because I almost like the idea of there not being a standard here. What I've come to realize about standard fantasy leagues is that they all trend in the wrong direction as far as real player values... kinda like the obvious in IDP. My recent poll asked two questions:

1. What is the most valuable IDP position group in REAL football? (18 respondents)
56% DLine (myself, Lukky, Coogan, People Mover, Phaded, 5 others)
33% LBs
11% CBs

2. What is the most valuable IDP position group in your fantasy leagues?
72% LBs
28% DLine

I consider this to be the obvious trend in IDP leagues that could be addressed, or not. I tend to think that watching football on Sunday is more fun rooting for my linebackers to show up all over the field. I'd like to dive into IDP player salaries to see about which group is being paid like the most valuable.

[dlf_tomk]

Interesting thoughts Bruiser.

For the first question I think I answered CB. But I don't really think that. The thing about D is that if you've got a really weak player [i.e. worse than the other 10] on the field then it's a weak point to attack whichever position it is. One of the reasons I love defense is it's so much more egalitarian and team-focused than offence where the QB is so much more important. The Cards are a pretty good D but that second corner spot is SO bad that it's significantly impacted their season. The Broncos interior being poor against the run is another good example. There are loads of examples.

And likewise I answered LB for the 2nd question but only because they tend to contribute more points than any other position. Given scarcity and positional advantage I value a good DE more than a LB - but I spend more time on LB because that's generally a higher proportion of my overall weekly points.

Definitely happy to provide data about IDP salaries. There's definitely a meta-study to be done here. Might be a fun project for some of us to run in the off-season?

[bruiser]

see other thread... study has begun!

[FiremanEd]

Collins has provided the top positional advantage in my league too, with 44 points over Tony Jefferson as the #2 DB. That's greater than Mack, who is ahead of JPP, Dunlap, and Campbell by less than 40. Plus Collins was extremely consistent this year. I agree it is weird to call a DB the MVP, but I think it may be accurate this season. He's also 15 points up on Mack in my league, a gap i am hoping he can hold off in Week 16 to get me a Defensive MVP trophy for my Trophy Case.

[bruiser]

Ok, I'm hearing all the buzz about Collins in certain formats. But, I just want to be sure we are all measuring positional advantage accordingly:

Collins compared to Jefferson >< positional advantage
Collins compared to baseline Safety = positional advantage

Some folks in the industry like to use alternative baselines, and that's fine... I think most good baselines arrive at nearly the same solution for positional scarcity. But, I wanted to lay this out there that we are measuring the same thing.

My baseline isn't elaborate, but its fast and easy to use. I compared S1 (Collins) to S40 (Karl Joseph) in PPG. Collins has an 8.5PPG advantage over the baseline starter in my leagues. Khalil Mack is DE1 compared to Charles Johnson DE40 reveals a 9.4PPG advantage. Using my model, I already have plenty of information that shows how much easier it is to replace production at the safety slot, so the extra point carries even more weight for Mack, IMO.

Now, I'll disclose that this league uses weighted DT scoring, and Aaron Donald is DT1. The baseline starter at DT is Terrell McClain at DT25. The difference there being 10.2PPG gives Aaron Donald an even larger positional advantage than Collins and Mack. Of course, this IDP MVP stuff is fun, but wholly league-centric. I'm attempting to pull the masses toward scoring ideals that would take some of the fantasy value from safety, linebacker and properly give it to defensive line, and maybe somehow cornerback. That is the tough one....

[FiremanEd]

Yeah, the positional scarcity component will depend on starting roster requirements. It is absolutely valid, but the baseline selection could be impacted.

I think it is impossible to argue Collins > Mack or Donald in real life, but the argument can be made depending on fantasy league and scoring for 2016. Going into 2017 I'd prefer to own Mack or Donald (in DT premium) and think I'd be in tough to find an owner who felt otherwise who may make such an exchange. Collins should be consistent, but I think his pass defense stats (PDs, INTs) will be extremely tough for him to replicate. As an owner I may look to sell high this offseason and see if I can leverage him to acquire a Mack owner if he's vulnerable enough. I wouldn't bank on it though.

[bruiser]

Yes, I always advocate selling off a top performing S or CB because of the turnover at the position. I actually sold off Trumaine Johnson for a 2.09 last year (amazing). One man's trash is another man's treasure.

Remarkably, I've seen safety and corner get drafted in the 1st round of my 16-team leagues (by good owners, too). No format/settings can account for that kind of valuation/gamble. It would be akin to drafting a punter in the 1st round.