JPP

[Phaded]

What does everyone think of JPP moving forward?

He had some pretty nice performances and I think having Vernon on the other end really helped him.
He's about to turn 28 so he is not THAT old.
He is going to be a free agent next year.
However, he just sustained an error.

Where would you rank him among the DLs?

[lukkynumber13]

Top 10 for sure. Maybe top 5-6

[Phaded]

Top 10 for sure. Maybe top 5-6

Would you rather have him or Danielle Hunter?

[bruiser]

Hunter. No neck surgeries yet. The force required from these guys on the edge is beginning to shorten their windows of peak performance. When I first started into IDP, the better DEs were upwards of 30yrs old. I think we are seeing a trend developing of making the young bucks into studs using their speed and flexibility.

Not discounting the craft that older guys hone, but just my observations of the 'window' to finding that true elite difference-maker. I'll be eating my words if Watt comes back stronger than ever next season.

[dlf_tomk]

Fun fact:
Just 31% of all tackles made by DEs are by players who are 29 or older. The figure is 35% for sacks. The vast majority of all defensive plays in the NFL are made by younger players.

Having said that good players do tend to age well at DE. There are 13 players who have had more than 20 sacks past the age of 29 [2010-2015 data]:
Jared Allen
Cam Wake
Chris Clemons
Jason babin
Julius Peppers
Osi Umenyiora
Robert Mathis
Brian Robison
Antonio Smith
Rob Ninkovich
Justin Smith
Justin Tuck
Israel Idonije

That's a roll-call of high quality. It's absolutely possible JPP continues to be productive. But if I were a betting man I'd bet on youth here.

[skip]

Fun fact:
Just 31% of all tackles made by DEs are by players who are 29 or older. The figure is 35% for sacks. The vast majority of all defensive plays in the NFL are made by younger players.

Out of curiosity to put these numbers in perspective...how do these numbers correlate to the ages of the players? i.e. assuming there are 64 starting DEs in the league, how many of them are 29 or older?

[dlf_tomk]

Good question.

In terms of pure bodies 26% of all DEs in that period who registered a defensive stat were 29 or over. Just 13% are 31 or older.

The real number I'd like of course is the % of snaps taken by DEs of that age or over but I don't have it. The closest I have to that is years of experience for 2016 so far. Here's how it breaks down:

7+ yrs 31%
8+ 22%
9+ 14%
10+ 7%
11+ 5%
12+ 1%
Those numbers are obviously not cumulative. 7+ includes all players with 8+ so don't add them together.

FYI the DEs with 11+ yrs experience in the NFL in 2016 are:
Dwight Freeney, Kyle Williams, Antonio Smith, Mario Williams, Rob Ninko, Darryl Tapp.

Pretty darn solid players bar Ninko and Antonio Smith who are both ageing fast and getting limited snaps.

[Phaded]

Hunter. No neck surgeries yet. The force required from these guys on the edge is beginning to shorten their windows of peak performance. When I first started into IDP, the better DEs were upwards of 30yrs old. I think we are seeing a trend developing of making the young bucks into studs using their speed and flexibility.

Except there has been a lot of inconsistency with a lot of these young guys - no? And even a lot of these young guys seem to fall off a cliff, not just the old guys.

Not disagreeing, just more or less curious. I really like Hunter a lot; but I am iffy if this is a sign of things to come or a flash in the pan (once teams watch tape and figure out him more frequently). His sack numbers are quite impressive for a 22 year old who plays just north of 50% of the team snaps.

Having said that good players do tend to age well at DE. There are 13 players who have had more than 20 sacks past the age of 29 [2010-2015 data]

Interesting list - but I think most would agree that JPP is closer to the higher end players on that list than the lower end.
I don't need the exact list - but what is the number of players under the age of 29 between those years?

I guess I am just looking at JPP because he can be had for cheap in my league - and unless you are talking very top tier of DL, it can be pretty unpredictable.

In terms of pure bodies 26% of all DEs in that period who registered a defensive stat were 29 or over. Just 13% are 31 or older.

Maybe I am misunderstanding the statistics - but if 35% of the sacks in the league are being accounted for by 26% of the DEs in the league, isn't that a statistic that is favorable for old players?

That would mean that the other 65% of the sacks in the league are coming from the 74% that are younger than 29, no?

[skip]

In terms of pure bodies 26% of all DEs in that period who registered a defensive stat were 29 or over. Just 13% are 31 or older.

So it would be interesting to find this out then with a bit more depth to consider snaps, etc. but if we look at it from purely a percentage basis - since both stats you provided were based on registered stats... 26% of all DEs were 29+ and 31% of all tackles by DEs were recorded by these players then that may demonstrate either than the 29+ year olds actually perform better than their younger counterparts? Or at least that the stat itself may not really tell us much since we need to consider some margin for error. I would think that the two numbers are close enough to not really consider this significant and just think of things more generally.

Perhaps snap distribution by age would be something to look at.

Despite my long history in this game, I'm just an IDP newbie with 2016 being my first year in a "true" IDP league and in only one dynasty league so don't take anything I am suggesting here or asking in a context that suggests otherwise. This is a learning opportunity for me. I happen to own JPP on that team and am interested in this specific discussion but also to gain more general knowledge that I can apply to a strategy.

[dlf_tomk]

I wouldnt get too hung up on the comparison between snaps and sacks [or tackles]. The takeout for me is really simple - the big majority of defensive plays in the NFL are made by those under 26. The only players that hang around when theyre older are the good ones. For obvious reasons - teams don't want to hand out expensive second contracts when they can get cheap rookies in.

Here's a visualisation of tackles by position by age:



So as regards to JPP it's pretty simple - he's good and he'll be good for a couple more years. But he's the exception. Keep hold of him for now but if someone offers you something decent I'd think very seriously about it. He's been overworked this year and after a nasty injury he might drop off a bit next year.

Welcome to the IDP world btw - I'm continually baffled why more FF players just ignore the defensive side of the ball. Great to see more people branching out. It's a world that's not understood anywhere near as much because there are far fewer people involved and active. So all theories and thoughts are welcome! I like to think this particular sub is a pretty friendly place where we're all happy to argue and not fall out